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Mumbai, Aug 1: The Reserve Bank today pegged retail inflation at 4.8 per cent for the second half of current fiscal expecting increase in food prices due to hike in minimum support price (MSP).

For the July-September quarter, it has projected inflation to be at 4.6 per cent.

RBI made the projections in its third monetary policy review for the current fiscal.

Retail inflation has been projected to rise further to 5 per cent in the first quarter of next financial year 2019-20.

"The inflation outlook is likely to be shaped by several factors. First, the central government has decided to fix the minimum support prices (MSPs) of at least 150 per cent of the cost of production for all kharif crops for the sowing season of 2018-19.

"This increase in MSPs for kharif crops, which is much larger than the average increase seen in the past few years, will have a direct impact on food inflation and second round effects on headline inflation," RBI said in its third bi-monthly policy review.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), chaired by RBI Governor Urjit Patel has raised the benchmark repo rate by 0.25 per cent to 6.25 per cent citing inflation worries, which is likely to make consumer products costlier.

"Based on an assessment..., inflation is projected at 4.6 per cent in Q2, 4.8 per cent in second half (H2) of 2018-19 and 5 per cent in Q1:2019-20, with risks evenly balanced," RBI said.

Excluding the HRA impact, the CPI-based inflation is projected at 4.4 per cent in Q2, 4.7-4.8 per cent in H2 and 5 per cent, it added.

On MSP hike, RBI said there is a considerable uncertainty and the exact impact would depend on the nature and scale of the government's procurement operations.

"As such, only the incremental increase in MSPs over the average increase in the past will impact inflation projections.

"Second, the overall performance of the monsoon so far augurs well for food inflation in the medium-term. Third, crude oil prices have moderated slightly, but remain at elevated levels. Fourth, the central government has reduced Goods and Services Tax (GST) rates on several goods and services," RBI said.

This will have some direct moderating impact on inflation, provided there is a pass-through of reduced GST rates to retail consumers, it added.

Additionally, RBI said the inflation in items excluding food and fuel has been broad-based and has risen significantly in recent months, reflecting greater pass-through of rising input costs and improving demand conditions.

Citing all these reasons and that the financial markets continue to be volatile, RBI said the assessment on inflation is based on all these factors combined.
 (PTI)


New Delhi, Mar 24: Five organisations which studied the ground reality on the payment of Minimum Support Price to farmers for their produce have found out that ``of the nine mandis studied in five states in not a single mandi were farmers able to sell any crop at government mandated MSP’’. 
The study does not include wheat crop, which is still arriving in mandis.
The civil society groups are seeking immediate market intervention by the Government to prevent distress sale by farmers.
Addressing a press conference here on Saturday, Yodendra Yadav of Jai Kisan Andolan and Sunilam of the Kisan Sangarsh Samiti said on account of bumper harvests, prices of rabi Bengal Gram and Mustard had crashed by 10 to 20 per cent.
``Procurement operations let the farmers down, when most needed,’’ said an interim report published by the organisations and released to media persons here. 
Stating that there was urgent need for market intervention and effective procurement to prevent further damage, Mr Yadav said , ``we invite Prime Minister Narendra Modi to visit any mandi and take up any crop and ascertain whether farmers are getting MSP for their produce.’’
Representatives of Jan Kisan Andolan, National Alliance of Peoples’ Movements, Karnataka Rajya Raitha Sangha, Kisan Sangarsh Samiti, Rythu Joint Action Committee and Rythu Swarajya Vedika visited mandis in five states of Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Rajasthan and Haryana.
The crops for which MSP payment were studied included tur dal, groundnut, cotton (in kharif marketing season) and Bengal Gram, Mustard and Barley (in Rabi marketing season). 
``Now, we are going to study mandis in Madhya Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh,’’ Mr Yadav said.
The interim report recommended that procurement should start on time and extend for a longer period to prevent distress sales. 
Sufficient number of procurement centres should be opened and their location should be communicated well in advance. 
Fund Transfer Order should be generated within 24 hours, failing which, penal interest should be paid to farmers. UNI


New Delhi, March 17: Assailing "atmosphere of despair and misinformation' over farm commodity prices, Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday said that the government was working with the state governments on raising the Minimum Support Price (MSP) to one-and-a-half-times of the production cost.
He indicated that the input cost will be computed at C2 cost which will take into account expenses on hired and family labour, machinery, livestock, seeds, fertiliser, irrigation and power costs, land revenue, interest on working capital etc. "This will be a big step,' he said.
Addressing a huge gathering of farmers, scientists and experts at the Krishi Unnati Mela, the Prime Minister urged farmers to adopt new technologies in agriculture and use modern techniques to change the way farming is done so as to achieve the goal of doubling their income by 2022 when the country celebrates 75 years of its Freedom.
Mr Modi said nothing was impossible to achieve when the target was clear. With revolutions in green (crop), white (milk), blue (fish), sweet (honey), organic and water the goal of doubling farmers income by 2022 was possible, he said.
The Prime Minister described as `a new chapter' his launching of e-marketing in organic farming on the occasion and said the government had initiated Agriculture Marketing Reforms to integrate local markets with wholesale to global markets so that farmers can sell their produce in a radius of five to six kilometres.
Repeatedly asking farmers to visit the 800 stalls at the fair that displayed the latest technologies and gave live demonstrations, he empahasised on cluster farming and said the government had given tax exemption to Farmers-Producer Organisation. "Farmers must observe how the experiments in FPOs were doing and can be upscaled so as to enhance incomes.'
Referring to the burning of crop residue in some of the north eastern states that caused large scale pollution, he asked farmers to use machine to mulch the residue to improve soil fertility and prevent pollution. He also advocated using farm waste to create wealth. ``Swastha dhara, khet hara' (Healthy earth will keep farm fields fertile).
The Prime Minister spent a large part of his 45-minute address to talk about the measures taken in the union budget 2018-19 to meet the challenges in the agriculture sector including provision of 11 crore Soil Health Cards, Prime Minister's Fasal Bima Yojana, Prime Minister's Krishi Sinchai Yojana, Operation Greens for Tomato, Onion and Potato prices, Rs 10,000-crore for infrastructure in fisheries and animal husbandry and enhancement of farm credit to Rs 11-lakh-crore.
Mr Modi said farmers and scientists were pillars of New India who had brought the country a long way from insufficient foodgrains to record production and ahead of others in milk, fruit and vegetables output. The government was committed to strengthening farmers with provision of modern seed, power, water, markets and fair price for commodities.
Stating that agriculture was central to India's civilisation and culture, he urged farmers to take small steps to achieve the desired results, just as ants which not only produce food but enhances soil fertility.
The Prime Minister asked farmers to take a pledge to achieve an India of Gandhi's dreams by 2022.
On the occasion he presented Krishi Karman awards to various states for impressive production in various commodities. Madhya Pradesh won the award for high output in wheat, West Bengal in pulses, Assam in oilseeds, Bihar in coarse cereals and Punjab in paddy production. Tamil Nadu, Meghalaya and Himachal Pradesh were also honoured. 
A Chhattisgarh Krishi Vigyan Kendra won the Deen Dayal Upadhyaya National award for scientific technology.
He launched 25 Krishi Vikas Kendras and e-market portal in organic farming.
Earlier, Mr Modi went around the exhibition and took interest in stalls displaying bee-keeping, organic farming, water demonstration, solar energy use and food processing.
Welcoming Mr Modi to the Mela, Union Agriculture and Farmers Welfare Minister Radha Mohan Singh appealed to farmers' organisations and farm leaders to give up protests and agitations and appreciate government's commitment to farmers' welfare.
'Naare lagane se kuch nahi hoga. (You will achieve nothing by raising slogans). For the government the welfare schemes for farmers and doubling farmers' income by 2022 is not just a slogan,' he said.
Among those present on the occasion were Union Agriculture Minister Radha Mohan Singh, Ministers of State Purshottam Rupala, Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, Krishna Raj, Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Meghalaya Chief Minister Mukul Sangma and Union Agriculture Secretary SK Pattanayak. UNI