Kanchanpur/Khowai
(Tripura), Feb 15: In the run up to the crucial Assembly polls, as the BJP
juggernaut continues and the Marxists feel threatened in their own fiefdom,
many say the Congress and ‘third party factor’ may in the ultimate come to the
rescue of the ruling CPI-M in Tripura.
“In our state, the Congress and the CPI-M have been die-hard
traditional foes. Even in the height of Congress-Left bonhomie during UPA-I the
local rivalry continued. But now when the Marxists are facing worst crisis in
the state, only saviour for them seem is the Congress,” says Ajit Kar, a BJP
worker in Kanchanpur.
The argument being if the Congress candidates do well and eat into large chunk of the anti-establishment or anti-CPI(M) votes, the communist candidates will sail across in many seats.
In fact, even from the BJP’s point of view the worries have now zeroed down to the ‘third party factor’ and the saffron poll managers in many constituencies feel that having lost their leaders and support base to the BJP, the Congress can play a significant “vote cutter” in many seats.
“The Congress can be a factor.....but not all across the state. In some segments, they can harm BJP nominees,” says Samar Das, a BJP supporter in Khowai.
The argument in these lines have gained currency in recent times all the more as various surveys and opinion polls by media houses suggest that the BJP as emerged as the principal opponents to the CPI-M and may win 25 to 30 seats if not more in the 60-member Assembly.
In Kamalpur Assembly segment in Dhalai district, BJP nominee Manoj Kanti Deb also admits about the ‘Congress factor’. But he says in his constituency the Congress candidate Bijoy Krishna Chatterjee cannot be a factor as “lock, stock and barrel everyone joined me when I shifted to the BJP”.
In fact, as an original Congressman and a legislator between 2008 and 2013; Mr Deb says, he was "compelled" to join the BJP by “workers’ pressure”.
“In some constituencies the Congress may not get even 500 votes,” he claims.
However, closer scrutiny suggests the BJP and even the ally Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura (IPFT) candidates may suffer ‘set back’ if Congress and another tribal-based party the Indigenous Nationalist Party of Tripura (INPT) do well.
For instance, a Congress worker in Kamalpur Jyotish Malakar points out, “If INPT chief and former militant Bijoy Kumar Hranghkhawl does well in Ambasa, the BJP candidate Porimal Deb Barma will find the going tough”.
According to analysts, some Congress candidates have already caused enough troubles in the BJP camp.
In Banamalipur assembly segment in Agartala, BJP state unit president Biplab Kumar Deb is locked in a straight contest against CPI-M nominee. But his main worry is apparently the Congress candidate Gopal Roy as the argument being if Roy does well – Biplap Deb may not sail home.
Mr Roy is a local 'on-ground' leader who has been winning this seat continuously from 2003. In fact, he had defeated CPI candidate Yudhisthir Das in 2013 by a margin of 5762 votes.
“Biplab Deb may be an unofficial contender for Chief Minister’s post. But if he loses Banamalipur, the chief villain will be Congress nominee and not the CPI-M candidate Amal Chakraborty," says educationist Shibesh Nandi.
Banamalipur is traditionally an anti-Left segment since 1957 except 1978, all through anti-communist or Congress nominees were elected from the constituency.
The Congress factor is actually also ‘strong’ in Kailashahar where Prime Minister Narendra Modi campaigned during his visit on February 8.
The Tripura Pradesh Congress chief Birajit Sinha is the sitting MLA and is seeking re-election. He is locked in a triangular contest against CPI (M) nominee Mohaswar Ali and BJP candidate Nitish Dey, also a former Marxist leader.
If Birajit Sinha, who had won the key seat in 2013 by a slender margin of 485 votes against CPI (M) candidate Mohaswar Ali, manages to do well – the division of anti-Left vote may help out Mr Ali in the ultimate.
Similarly, closer scrutiny suggests in Badarghat SC reserved seat, the Congress nominee Ratan Ch Das may harm BJP nominee Dilip Sarkar – more so because this constituency has about 4000 Muslims and if the minorities decide to stick to CPI-M, the Marxist candidate would be able to sail home easily.
Even in Kanchanpur, analysis shows INPT candidate can in the ultimate contribute in the defeat of BJP’s ally IPFT candidate Prem Kumar Reang and the equation thus may help sitting CPI-M candidate Rajendra Reang.
In Surma reserved SC seat, the BJP has covered lot of ground but here too the fear is Congress nominee can play spoilsport to the prospects of Ashish Das of saffron outfit.
There are number of such seats where Congress can in fact help CPI-M and not surprisingly, many Congress leaders like Puducherry Chief Minister V. Narayanasamy, who have campaigned in Tripura have directed their tirade more against the BJP than the CPI-M. UNI
The argument being if the Congress candidates do well and eat into large chunk of the anti-establishment or anti-CPI(M) votes, the communist candidates will sail across in many seats.
In fact, even from the BJP’s point of view the worries have now zeroed down to the ‘third party factor’ and the saffron poll managers in many constituencies feel that having lost their leaders and support base to the BJP, the Congress can play a significant “vote cutter” in many seats.
“The Congress can be a factor.....but not all across the state. In some segments, they can harm BJP nominees,” says Samar Das, a BJP supporter in Khowai.
The argument in these lines have gained currency in recent times all the more as various surveys and opinion polls by media houses suggest that the BJP as emerged as the principal opponents to the CPI-M and may win 25 to 30 seats if not more in the 60-member Assembly.
In Kamalpur Assembly segment in Dhalai district, BJP nominee Manoj Kanti Deb also admits about the ‘Congress factor’. But he says in his constituency the Congress candidate Bijoy Krishna Chatterjee cannot be a factor as “lock, stock and barrel everyone joined me when I shifted to the BJP”.
In fact, as an original Congressman and a legislator between 2008 and 2013; Mr Deb says, he was "compelled" to join the BJP by “workers’ pressure”.
“In some constituencies the Congress may not get even 500 votes,” he claims.
However, closer scrutiny suggests the BJP and even the ally Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura (IPFT) candidates may suffer ‘set back’ if Congress and another tribal-based party the Indigenous Nationalist Party of Tripura (INPT) do well.
For instance, a Congress worker in Kamalpur Jyotish Malakar points out, “If INPT chief and former militant Bijoy Kumar Hranghkhawl does well in Ambasa, the BJP candidate Porimal Deb Barma will find the going tough”.
According to analysts, some Congress candidates have already caused enough troubles in the BJP camp.
In Banamalipur assembly segment in Agartala, BJP state unit president Biplab Kumar Deb is locked in a straight contest against CPI-M nominee. But his main worry is apparently the Congress candidate Gopal Roy as the argument being if Roy does well – Biplap Deb may not sail home.
Mr Roy is a local 'on-ground' leader who has been winning this seat continuously from 2003. In fact, he had defeated CPI candidate Yudhisthir Das in 2013 by a margin of 5762 votes.
“Biplab Deb may be an unofficial contender for Chief Minister’s post. But if he loses Banamalipur, the chief villain will be Congress nominee and not the CPI-M candidate Amal Chakraborty," says educationist Shibesh Nandi.
Banamalipur is traditionally an anti-Left segment since 1957 except 1978, all through anti-communist or Congress nominees were elected from the constituency.
The Congress factor is actually also ‘strong’ in Kailashahar where Prime Minister Narendra Modi campaigned during his visit on February 8.
The Tripura Pradesh Congress chief Birajit Sinha is the sitting MLA and is seeking re-election. He is locked in a triangular contest against CPI (M) nominee Mohaswar Ali and BJP candidate Nitish Dey, also a former Marxist leader.
If Birajit Sinha, who had won the key seat in 2013 by a slender margin of 485 votes against CPI (M) candidate Mohaswar Ali, manages to do well – the division of anti-Left vote may help out Mr Ali in the ultimate.
Similarly, closer scrutiny suggests in Badarghat SC reserved seat, the Congress nominee Ratan Ch Das may harm BJP nominee Dilip Sarkar – more so because this constituency has about 4000 Muslims and if the minorities decide to stick to CPI-M, the Marxist candidate would be able to sail home easily.
Even in Kanchanpur, analysis shows INPT candidate can in the ultimate contribute in the defeat of BJP’s ally IPFT candidate Prem Kumar Reang and the equation thus may help sitting CPI-M candidate Rajendra Reang.
In Surma reserved SC seat, the BJP has covered lot of ground but here too the fear is Congress nominee can play spoilsport to the prospects of Ashish Das of saffron outfit.
There are number of such seats where Congress can in fact help CPI-M and not surprisingly, many Congress leaders like Puducherry Chief Minister V. Narayanasamy, who have campaigned in Tripura have directed their tirade more against the BJP than the CPI-M. UNI
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